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	<title>Chris Navin &#187; Probability</title>
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		<title>Chris Navin &#187; Probability</title>
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		<title>From The Chronicle Of Higher Ed Via A &amp; L Daily:  &#8220;Gaia In The Light Of Modern Science&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/2009/08/03/from-the-chronicle-of-higher-ed-via-a-l-daily-gaia-in-the-light-of-modern-science/</link>
		<comments>http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/2009/08/03/from-the-chronicle-of-higher-ed-via-a-l-daily-gaia-in-the-light-of-modern-science/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 01:40:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>chr1</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Philosophy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Debate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Religion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gaia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Green Religion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Lovelock]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Full post here. (once archived, it won&#8217;t be free)
Upon hearing &#8220;Gaia&#8221; you might be thinking mystic, earth-worshippers (green religion at its worst) but our author uses the theory put forward by James Lovelock over 40 years ago as an interesting philosophical meditation.
&#8220;Perhaps in the end, Plato had it right: We need both perspectives, Heraclitean and Parmenidean, [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=chrisnavin.wordpress.com&blog=1212474&post=3237&subd=chrisnavin&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><a href="http://chronicle.com/article/Gaia-in-the-Light-of-Modern/47102/" target="_blank">Full post here</a>. (once archived, it won&#8217;t be free)</p>
<p>Upon hearing &#8220;Gaia&#8221; you might be thinking mystic, earth-worshippers (green religion at its worst) but our author uses the theory put forward by <a href="http://www.jameslovelock.org/" target="_blank">James Lovelock</a> over 40 years ago as an interesting philosophical meditation.</p>
<blockquote><p><span style="font-style:italic;font-weight:bold;text-decoration:underline;">&#8220;Perhaps in the end, Plato had it right: We need both perspectives, Heraclitean and Parmenidean, to get the whole picture. At our peril, and at our children&#8217;s peril, we ignore the messages of those seminal Greek thinkers.&#8221;</span></p></blockquote>
<p><span style="position:relative;display:block;"><a style="color:#1057ae;text-decoration:underline;" title="earth from space by Ilumenari [ Mark Vancleave ]" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/fireflymv/2701901791/"><img style="border:initial none initial;" src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3261/2701901791_1b6d997a2b_m.jpg" alt="earth from space by Ilumenari [ Mark Vancleave ]" width="240" height="159" /></a></span></p>
<p><span style="position:relative;display:block;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/fireflymv/" target="_blank">Illumenari [ Mark Vancleave ]&#8217;s photostream here</a>.</span></p>
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			<media:title type="html">earth from space by Ilumenari [ Mark Vancleave ]</media:title>
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		<title>From The Frontal Cortex: Lotteries</title>
		<link>http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/2008/07/31/from-the-frontal-cortex-lotteries/</link>
		<comments>http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/2008/07/31/from-the-frontal-cortex-lotteries/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Aug 2008 01:49:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>chr1</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Debate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gambling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lottery]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/?p=766</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A short post here.
They&#8217;ve recently been called a tax on stupidity&#8230;often the poorest people play the longest odds in a feedback loop.   
Addition:  Give a man a fish&#8230;
Allow a man to pay for a ticket with terrible odds of winning money that could buy him fish (which probably wouldn&#8217;t be the first thing he&#8217;d buy) and you can pay for your schools and roads.
See [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=chrisnavin.wordpress.com&blog=1212474&post=766&subd=chrisnavin&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2008/07/lotteries.php" target="_blank">A short post here.</a></p>
<p>They&#8217;ve recently been called a tax on stupidity&#8230;often the poorest people play the longest odds in a feedback loop.   </p>
<p><strong>Addition:  </strong>Give a man a fish&#8230;</p>
<p>Allow a man to pay for a ticket with terrible odds of winning money that could buy him fish (which probably wouldn&#8217;t be the first thing he&#8217;d buy) and you can pay for your schools and roads.</p>
<p><strong><em>See Also</em></strong>:  A little bit about Indian run casinos: <a rel="bookmark" href="http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/2008/04/22/roger-sandall-marveling-at-the-aborigines-but-not-really-helping-3/"><span style="color:#b54141;">Roger Sandall: Marveling At The Aborigines, But Not Really Helping?</span></a></p>
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		<title>George Johnson Reviews &#8220;The Drunkard&#8217;s Walk&#8221; In The NY Times</title>
		<link>http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/2008/06/09/george-johnson-reviews-the-drunkards-walk-in-the-ny-times/</link>
		<comments>http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/2008/06/09/george-johnson-reviews-the-drunkards-walk-in-the-ny-times/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Jun 2008 01:07:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>chr1</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Debate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Logical Fallacies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/?p=528</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Full post here.
Well, you probably know that people rarely make rational decisions, but did you realize how easy it is to be wrong?
&#8230;the additional information skews the odds, and with Cardano’s method you can make a rational, though counterintuitive, decision.
We have all probably &#8220;trusted our intuitions&#8221; in crucial moments but haven&#8217;t had rational explanations for why we did so, or for that [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=chrisnavin.wordpress.com&blog=1212474&post=528&subd=chrisnavin&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/books/review/Johnson-G-t.html?_r=1&amp;ref=science&amp;oref=slogin" target="_blank">Full post here.</a></p>
<p>Well, you probably know that people rarely make rational decisions, but did you realize how easy it is to be wrong?</p>
<p>&#8230;<strong><em><span style="text-decoration:underline;">the additional information skews the odds, and with Cardano’s method you can make a rational, though counterintuitive, decision.</span></em></strong></p>
<p>We have all probably &#8220;trusted our intuitions&#8221; in crucial moments but haven&#8217;t had rational explanations for why we did so, or for that matter, we probably don&#8217;t have a good definition of what intuition is either.  </p>
<p>The Nikzor site has some <a href="http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/" target="_blank">good fallacies</a> and Marilyn Vos Savant&#8217;s (of Parade and Jarvik fame) page <a href="http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/logic.html" target="_blank">has some as well</a>.</p>
<p><strong>*</strong>Check out Johnson&#8217;s <a href="http://sciwrite.org/glj/garagebandscience.html" target="_blank">garage band science page</a> if you&#8217;re interested in simple experiments, especially to do with electricity.</p>
<p><strong>See Also</strong>:  <a href="http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/2007/10/07/marilyn-vos-savant-the-game-show-problem/" target="_blank">Marilyn Vos Savant:  The Game Show Problem</a></p>
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		<title>Marilyn Vos Savant: The Game Show Problem</title>
		<link>http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/2007/10/07/marilyn-vos-savant-the-game-show-problem/</link>
		<comments>http://chrisnavin.wordpress.com/2007/10/07/marilyn-vos-savant-the-game-show-problem/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Oct 2007 20:29:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>chr1</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Education]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Do you remember this problem?
You&#8217;ve really got to consider the conditions&#8230;
There are also some interesting logical fallacies on the site.   Here is link to the Nikzor Project, with a very comprehensive list of logical errors.
You&#8217;re a smart and discerning reader, which is why I&#8217;d like you to check them out.

      [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=chrisnavin.wordpress.com&blog=1212474&post=190&subd=chrisnavin&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>Do you remember this <a target="_blank" href="http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/gameshow.html" title="problem">problem</a>?</p>
<p>You&#8217;ve really got to consider the conditions&#8230;</p>
<p>There are also some interesting <a target="_blank" href="http://www.marilynvossavant.com/articles/logic.html" title="logical fallacies">logical fallacies</a> on the site.   Here is link to the <a target="_blank" href="http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/" title="Nikzor">Nikzor</a> Project, with a very comprehensive list of logical errors.</p>
<p>You&#8217;re a <a target="_blank" href="http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/appeal-to-flattery.html" title="smart and discerning">smart and discerning </a>reader, which is why I&#8217;d like you to check them out.</p>
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